Stocks Broke Out, but Can They Hold Gains?

That was pretty unexpected. DJI broke out of resistance on Friday. This year is a year which broke many traditions. Seems this September is a up month. Gold touched an $1,300 per ounce. There is still uncertainty for next week till the end of September.

Side story

Looking at the chart of Genting Singapore, it's kinda going parabolic. What goes up, must come down - HARD. Of course this pattern is unpredictable as you won't know when the stock is going down. It just keeps going up, up, up, up till someone starts dumping it.

Does rally still have legs?

High volume on a day of uncertainty. I remain cautious. If it goes down again, we got a head and shoulders forming or a triple top.

MONDAY: NAHB housing market index; Nike shareholder meeting; Oracle Open World; Earnings from Lennar and Discover Financial
TUESDAY: Housing starts; FOMC Announcement; Clinton Global Initiative; MasterCard annual meeting; Earnings from AutoZone and Adobe
WEDNESDAY: Weekly mortgage applications; oil inventories; Wall Street & Washington Conference; Earnings from General Mills and Bed Bath & Beyond
THURSDAY: Weekly jobless claims; existing home sales; leading indicators; Chicago Fed Pres Evans speaks; Volcker speaks; FCC meeting on opening up new airwaves; Earnings from Rite Aid and Nike
FRIDAY: Durable goods orders; New home sales; Richmond Fed President Lacker speaks; Philadelphia Fed President Plosser speaks; NY Film Festival; Earnings from KB Home

Out of 200 SMA

We got a rally and we broke through the 200 SMA. Yesterday we had a pause in the rally. Right now we are in the month of September. In September it is traditionally flat till October. Looking at the low volumes too, markets probably gonna consolidate.

Up again?

Well, seems my support theory is holding well though it was weaving in and out of that territory. MACD looks towards an upside. However US economic situation isn't looking very bright. It's stalling. It was Friday's Job report propelling the rally on Friday but it declined slowly as people started digesting the news. Based on technical analysis, we still have that 200 day SMA to break. Also we already have the "death cross" which signals for another long term downward movement.

Still not looking better

Things are still not looking better for the US economy. Again disappointing jobs numbers. The 200 MA is still a tough nut to crack. We are back below 200 SMA again. Selling volumes are higher so expect more downside? We should reach a support soon at 10000 points. But there's a silver lining. Look at the baltic dry index.

Up or down?

After much upside, we seem to be hitting a ceiling. There's a fight of bulls and bears again. Bears are trying to bring it down but bulls pulling it up the last minute again.

"Volume was light, with less than 950 million shares changing hands on the New York Stock Exchange. Decliners outpaced advancers, roughly 8 to 7"

Low volume don't seem to tell me it's a bear. But probably stocks will come down the coming week.

For Singapore, we didn't get our National Day rally on Friday. So hopefully we will get a post National Day rally on Tuesday.